How likely is a small plane to come down among homes near LGB in the next ten years?
We combined twenty-one years of NTSB accident records with FAA traffic counts for Long Beach Airport. At today's pace, an off-airport crash in a populated part of Long Beach is more likely than not before 2035. The data behind that estimate is thin, and this page shows exactly how thin.
The odds, year by year
// Poisson projection · recent-trend traffic| Scenario | Each year | By 2030 | By 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent traffic trend, 2 crashes counted Base case | 10.8–13.6% | 45% | 73% |
| Traffic flat at 2025 level | 10.4% | 42% | 67% |
| Traffic grows 3.5% a year (2012–2024 pace) | 10.8–14.4% | 46% | 74% |
| Broader definition: 4 events, recent trend | 20.4–25.3% | 70% | 93% |
| Base case, 90% statistical range | 2.0–36.8% | 10–85% | 21–98% |
Traffic growth barely changes the answer. The biggest swings come from how few crashes there are to learn from and from which events count.
How the estimate is built
// four steps, all public dataCount the crashes
The NTSB lists 29 general aviation accidents in Long Beach from 2005 to 2025. Two came down off the airport in a populated area.
Count the traffic
FAA OPSNET records 5,891,660 general aviation operations at LGB over the same 21 years.
Turn it into a rate
Two crashes across that much traffic gives the base rate.2 ÷ 5.89 M ≈ 0.34 per million ops
Project forward
Apply the rate to projected traffic and treat crashes as random, independent events.P(≥1) = 1 − e−rate × ops
Projected traffic uses a straight-line fit to 2016–2025, which adds about 10,300 operations a year. The 90% range is the exact Poisson confidence interval for two observed events (0.36 to 6.3).
The events behind the numbers
// NTSB CAROL · Long Beach, CA · 2005–2025- OCT 2025CountedRutan Long-EZ onto Heartwell Park
The plane crash-landed on a soccer field near Carson Street and Woodruff Avenue and struck a woman on the ground. The pilot and the woman were both hospitalized. The NTSB investigation is ongoing.
- FEB 2006CountedCessna 210 precautionary landing
A faulty low-fuel indication led the pilot to attempt a precautionary landing in what the NTSB called a congested and less than ideal location. One person was seriously injured.
- APR 2019Broad case onlyPiper PA-28 lands on Orange Avenue
The plane lost power right after a touch-and-go on Runway 26L and landed in the 2700 block of Orange Avenue. No one was hurt and the plane wasn't damaged, so it isn't in the NTSB accident list.
- JUN 2015Broad case onlyBeech Musketeer through the Lakewood Blvd fence
Landing at night, the plane hit trees and the perimeter fence along Lakewood Boulevard. Debris struck a passing driver's car.
- MAY 2009Not countedMidair between two LGB training flights
A Cessna 310 and a Cessna 172 collided about five miles offshore in a practice area. Three people died. Over water, so not counted.
- 2005–2025On airport24 other accidents
Runway excursions, hard landings, taxi collisions, and helicopter training mishaps on the airport, including the 2023 hangar-roof crash. A 2005 banner-tow helicopter accident had no location we could confirm.
What this estimate can and can't tell you
// read before quoting"Near LGB" isn't your street
The estimate covers populated parts of Long Beach around the airport. The chance of a crash on any particular block is much smaller, and depends on where that block sits under the flight paths.
Two events is very little data
That's why the 90% range runs from 21% to 98% by 2035. The 73% figure is a best estimate, not a forecast.
It counts crashes, not deaths
Neither counted crash killed anyone. This estimates how often a plane comes down among people, not how often someone dies.
It assumes the future looks like the past
Changes in flight training, aircraft, rules, or the traffic mix toward local pattern work could push the real rate up or down.
Why the number still matters
Even the low end of the range gives roughly a one-in-five chance of a crash among homes this decade. Combined with the lack of any insurance requirement for private aircraft, that leaves residents exposed to a real risk with no guaranteed way to recover damages.